US vs North Korea
The probability of a full scale nuclear altercation is daily inching towards a certainty. Trump is talking tough, the young boy in Pyongyang is, as usual speaking inaudible rhetorics while perfecting his nuclear delivery systems.
None of the two, and indeed the world can afford some nuclear exchange of any kind. The most interesting part is role China is playing in this crisis ...an unwilling mediator who is only latently delighted about the sleepless headache DPK is giving US and a terror it is to small, unfriendly but nuke-capable countries such as Japan, Guam, Korea, etc.
China, on the strength of historical linkage and the economic leverage they have on DPK can easily pressure Kim Yung-Un into abandoning its albeit pointless nuclear ambitions while refocusing more on building social and economic prosperity for its people .....and get food aids, which America and others would gladly provide.
However, China won't! It is smarter for them to allow a leached dog (that can really bite) scare away intruders than worry about America's growing influence in their backyard a lá South China Sea and other military concerns. Meanwhile, the dog owner would actually wish the dog doesn't bite without caution as he himself isn't immune from the madness of the dog.
Let me give a relatable analogy. You have a younger brother with an unstable temperament who habitually scares away nosy neighbours. Of course, you are also in danger of his erratic behaviour, but you would rather tolerate that than the intrusion of a foe who has colonised and hoodwinked your entire neighbours against you.
Russia, like China are probably happy about the whole chaos. One, it is a distraction from the Trump-Russia election manipulation mess. Two, DPK's threat would get America busy diplomatically and militarily to bother about Russian advances in the Eastern shores of Europe or the Middle East. They will be watching keenly to seize the perfect moment which would boost Putin's unseemingly altruistic dossier and probably create new allies ....many of which they can't boast of right now.
To get DPK into a basket of reason, get China first.
#ThinkingAloud
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